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V-Lab
V-Lab

Ctac NV GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

46.26%

increased by 0.06%

1 Week

46.40%

increased by 0.20%

1 Month

46.91%

increased by 0.71%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 07:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Ctac NV GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 26, 2025 to Sep 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~89 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0910
0.10
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9922
2.93***
γleverage0.0000
0.00

0.992

Persistence

89d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0910
0.10
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9922
2.93***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

89 days