V-Lab
Ctac NV GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
33.00%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
34.19%
increased by 0.42%
1 Month
37.04%
increased by 3.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4847 | 5.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2145 | 4.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8200 | 38.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2145 | -3.12*** |
Persistence:
0.927
Half-life:
9 days
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