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V-Lab

Ctac NV GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

33.00%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Week

34.19%

increased by 0.42%

1 Month

37.04%

increased by 3.27%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Ctac NV GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 26, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4847
5.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2145
4.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8200
38.46***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2145
-3.12***

Persistence:

0.927

Half-life:

9 days