V-Lab
Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
26.88%
increased by 1.47%
1 Week
27.53%
increased by 2.12%
1 Month
29.85%
increased by 4.44%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2007 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 63 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 63 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 63-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1031 | 3.11*** |
| αARCH | 0.1012 | 4.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9095 | 86.29*** |
| γleverage | -0.0434 | -1.45 |
0.989
Persistence63d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1031 | 3.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1012 | 4.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9095 | 86.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0434 | -1.45 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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