V-Lab
Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
30.75%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Week
31.57%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Month
33.87%
increased by 2.07%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 04:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2007 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1218 | 5.71*** |
| αARCH | 0.0911 | 6.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8599 | 42.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.1863 | -4.01*** |
| γ2 | 0.3361 | 4.88*** |
| γ3 | -0.2686 | -4.93*** |
| γ4 | 0.2054 | 3.68*** |
| γ5 | -0.1137 | -2.68*** |
0.951
Persistence14d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1218 | 5.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0911 | 6.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8599 | 42.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.1863 | -4.01*** |
| γ2 | 0.3361 | 4.88*** |
| γ3 | -0.2686 | -4.93*** |
| γ4 | 0.2054 | 3.68*** |
| γ5 | -0.1137 | -2.68*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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