V-Lab
Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
28.47%
increased by 1.18%
1 Week
29.52%
increased by 2.23%
1 Month
32.42%
increased by 5.13%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2007 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1233 | 5.71*** |
| αARCH | 0.0910 | 6.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8601 | 42.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.1851 | -4.00*** |
| γ2 | 0.3339 | 4.88*** |
| γ3 | -0.2666 | -4.92*** |
| γ4 | 0.2029 | 3.65*** |
| γ5 | -0.1113 | -2.64*** |
0.951
Persistence14d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1233 | 5.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0910 | 6.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8601 | 42.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.1851 | -4.00*** |
| γ2 | 0.3339 | 4.88*** |
| γ3 | -0.2666 | -4.92*** |
| γ4 | 0.2029 | 3.65*** |
| γ5 | -0.1113 | -2.64*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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