Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
33.41%
increased by 0.25%
1 Week
33.90%
increased by 0.74%
1 Month
35.28%
increased by 2.12%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1151 | 5.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0920 | 7.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8600 | 42.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.1933 | -4.00*** |
| γ2 | 0.3461 | 4.82*** |
| γ3 | -0.2718 | -4.77*** |
| γ4 | 0.2045 | 3.55*** |
| γ5 | -0.1118 | -2.56** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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