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V-Lab

Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

28.47%

increased by 1.18%

1 Week

29.52%

increased by 2.23%

1 Month

32.42%

increased by 5.13%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 26, 2007 to Sep 30, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1233
5.71***
αARCH0.0910
6.98***
βGARCH0.8601
42.22***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.1851
-4.00***
γ20.3339
4.88***
γ3-0.2666
-4.92***
γ40.2029
3.65***
γ5-0.1113
-2.64***

0.951

Persistence

14d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1233
5.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0910
6.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8601
42.22***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.1851
-4.00***
γ20.3339
4.88***
γ3-0.2666
-4.92***
γ40.2029
3.65***
γ5-0.1113
-2.64***

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days