V-Lab
Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
34.73%
increased by 0.73%
1 Week
35.11%
increased by 1.11%
1 Month
36.20%
increased by 2.20%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1164 | 5.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0917 | 6.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8599 | 42.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.1914 | -4.01*** |
| γ2 | 0.3437 | 4.85*** |
| γ3 | -0.2718 | -4.84*** |
| γ4 | 0.2064 | 3.62*** |
| γ5 | -0.1139 | -2.64*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
Other Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities