V-Lab
Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
30.77%
increased by 1.27%
1 Week
31.56%
increased by 2.06%
1 Month
33.77%
increased by 4.27%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1179 | 5.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0914 | 6.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8599 | 42.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.1893 | -4.02*** |
| γ2 | 0.3406 | 4.87*** |
| γ3 | -0.2704 | -4.88*** |
| γ4 | 0.2057 | 3.64*** |
| γ5 | -0.1133 | -2.64*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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