Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
34.33%
1 Week
35.01%
1 Month
36.62%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 74% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 121 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1027 | 25.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8781 | 207.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0438 | -11.22*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.4807 | 0.75 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7923 | 0.77 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
17 days
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