V-Lab
Sansteel Minguang Co Ltd Fujian MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
35.75%
1 Week
35.37%
1 Month
36.64%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 74% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 121 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1023 | 25.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8784 | 208.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0435 | -11.17*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.4794 | 0.75 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7917 | 0.76 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
17 days
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