V-Lab
Amrest Holdings Se MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
26.61%
decreased by 0.92%
1 Week
27.38%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
29.21%
increased by 1.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 2005 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 89% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 89% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 51 | |
| αARCH | 0.0622 | 3.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8225 | 20.44*** |
| γleverage | 0.0551 | 2.31** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0258 | 1.23 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0157 | 1.87* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9791 | 86.96*** |
0.912
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0622 | 3.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8225 | 20.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0551 | 2.31** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0258 | 1.23 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0157 | 1.87* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9791 | 86.96*** |
Persistence:
0.912
Half-life:
8 days
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