V-Lab
Amrest Holdings Se Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
28.07%
decreased by 1.47%
1 Week
28.63%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Month
29.72%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 2005 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5691 | 6.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1170 | 5.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7659 | 15.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1925 | -4.93*** |
| γ2 | 0.2435 | 4.23*** |
| γ3 | -0.0554 | -1.38 |
| γ4 | 0.0402 | 1.05 |
| γ5 | -0.0970 | -2.88*** |
| γ6 | 0.0895 | 3.90*** |
Persistence:
0.883
Half-life:
6 days
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