V-Lab
Amrest Holdings Se Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
27.07%
increased by 2.66%
1 Week
27.92%
increased by 3.51%
1 Month
29.54%
increased by 5.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 2005 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5677 | 6.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1191 | 5.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7617 | 15.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1944 | -4.96*** |
| γ2 | 0.2459 | 4.25*** |
| γ3 | -0.0567 | -1.41 |
| γ4 | 0.0431 | 1.11 |
| γ5 | -0.1008 | -2.96*** |
| γ6 | 0.0920 | 3.95*** |
Persistence:
0.881
Half-life:
5 days
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