V-Lab
Amrest Holdings Se Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
25.00%
decreased by 1.02%
1 Week
26.16%
increased by 0.14%
1 Month
28.31%
increased by 2.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 2005 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5706 | 6.83*** |
| αARCH | 0.1167 | 5.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7661 | 15.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1912 | -4.92*** |
| γ2 | 0.2419 | 4.21*** |
| γ3 | -0.0547 | -1.37 |
| γ4 | 0.0393 | 1.03 |
| γ5 | -0.0963 | -2.87*** |
| γ6 | 0.0897 | 3.92*** |
0.883
Persistence6d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5706 | 6.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1167 | 5.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7661 | 15.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1912 | -4.92*** |
| γ2 | 0.2419 | 4.21*** |
| γ3 | -0.0547 | -1.37 |
| γ4 | 0.0393 | 1.03 |
| γ5 | -0.0963 | -2.87*** |
| γ6 | 0.0897 | 3.92*** |
Persistence:
0.883
Half-life:
6 days
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