V-Lab
Amrest Holdings Se Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
22.41%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
24.14%
increased by 1.34%
1 Month
27.25%
increased by 4.45%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 2005 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5721 | 6.84*** |
| αARCH | 0.1165 | 5.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7669 | 16.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1904 | -4.92*** |
| γ2 | 0.2413 | 4.22*** |
| γ3 | -0.0549 | -1.38 |
| γ4 | 0.0395 | 1.04 |
| γ5 | -0.0984 | -2.95*** |
| γ6 | 0.0933 | 4.11*** |
0.883
Persistence6d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5721 | 6.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1165 | 5.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7669 | 16.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1904 | -4.92*** |
| γ2 | 0.2413 | 4.22*** |
| γ3 | -0.0549 | -1.38 |
| γ4 | 0.0395 | 1.04 |
| γ5 | -0.0984 | -2.95*** |
| γ6 | 0.0933 | 4.11*** |
Persistence:
0.883
Half-life:
6 days
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