Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
127.43%
decreased by 18.90%
1 Week
124.12%
decreased by 22.21%
1 Month
112.75%
decreased by 33.58%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2003 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4391 | 3.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2156 | 4.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7513 | 16.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.3661 | -0.39 |
| γ2 | 2.4249 | 1.62 |
| γ3 | -3.7576 | -2.53** |
| γ4 | 1.6442 | 0.94 |
| γ5 | 0.6047 | 0.42 |
| γ6 | -0.6272 | -0.63 |
| γ7 | -0.4316 | -0.48 |
| γ8 | 0.9132 | 1.34 |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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