V-Lab
Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
42.46%
decreased by 2.34%
1 Week
48.12%
increased by 3.32%
1 Month
59.67%
increased by 14.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0958 | 3.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.2323 | 3.46*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6867 | 11.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 1.6929 | 8.16*** |
| γ2 | -2.5740 | -7.10*** |
| γ3 | 1.1813 | 3.81*** |
| γ4 | -0.3902 | -1.41 |
| γ5 | 0.1306 | 0.65 |
0.919
Persistence8d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0958 | 3.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2323 | 3.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6867 | 11.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 1.6929 | 8.16*** |
| γ2 | -2.5740 | -7.10*** |
| γ3 | 1.1813 | 3.81*** |
| γ4 | -0.3902 | -1.41 |
| γ5 | 0.1306 | 0.65 |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
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