V-Lab
Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
31.76%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Week
33.85%
increased by 1.42%
1 Month
39.63%
increased by 7.20%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 02:47 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2003 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4378 | 3.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2215 | 4.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7387 | 16.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.1557 | -0.18 |
| γ2 | 2.0716 | 1.54 |
| γ3 | -3.5884 | -2.68*** |
| γ4 | 1.6712 | 1.02 |
| γ5 | 0.5323 | 0.38 |
| γ6 | -0.6314 | -0.65 |
| γ7 | -0.4013 | -0.47 |
| γ8 | 0.9203 | 1.38 |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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