V-Lab
Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
36.11%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
37.56%
increased by 1.10%
1 Month
41.75%
increased by 5.29%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2003 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4338 | 3.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2204 | 4.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7410 | 16.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.2082 | -0.24 |
| γ2 | 2.1597 | 1.56 |
| γ3 | -3.6253 | -2.62*** |
| γ4 | 1.6506 | 0.99 |
| γ5 | 0.5656 | 0.40 |
| γ6 | -0.6429 | -0.66 |
| γ7 | -0.3894 | -0.45 |
| γ8 | 0.8928 | 1.34 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
18 days
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