Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
53.55%
decreased by 5.12%
1 Week
56.36%
decreased by 2.31%
1 Month
62.38%
increased by 3.71%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:39 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2003 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0649 | 3.96*** |
| αARCH | 0.2375 | 3.50*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6729 | 11.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 1.6458 | 8.59*** |
| γ2 | -2.5221 | -7.57*** |
| γ3 | 1.1976 | 4.19*** |
| γ4 | -0.4342 | -1.67* |
| γ5 | 0.1635 | 0.85 |
0.910
Persistence7d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0649 | 3.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2375 | 3.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6729 | 11.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 1.6458 | 8.59*** |
| γ2 | -2.5221 | -7.57*** |
| γ3 | 1.1976 | 4.19*** |
| γ4 | -0.4342 | -1.67* |
| γ5 | 0.1635 | 0.85 |
Persistence:
0.910
Half-life:
7 days
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