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V-Lab

Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

127.43%

decreased by 18.90%

1 Week

124.12%

decreased by 22.21%

1 Month

112.75%

decreased by 33.58%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 22, 2003 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4391
3.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2156
4.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7513
16.26***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.3661
-0.39
γ22.4249
1.62
γ3-3.7576
-2.53**
γ41.6442
0.94
γ50.6047
0.42
γ6-0.6272
-0.63
γ7-0.4316
-0.48
γ80.9132
1.34

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

21 days