V-Lab
Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
43.03%
decreased by 2.72%
1 Week
48.43%
increased by 2.68%
1 Month
59.29%
increased by 13.54%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 09:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2003 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0765 | 3.93*** |
| αARCH | 0.2338 | 3.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6813 | 11.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 1.6652 | 8.39*** |
| γ2 | -2.5431 | -7.34*** |
| γ3 | 1.1898 | 4.01*** |
| γ4 | -0.4144 | -1.55 |
| γ5 | 0.1482 | 0.75 |
0.915
Persistence8d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0765 | 3.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2338 | 3.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6813 | 11.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 1.6652 | 8.39*** |
| γ2 | -2.5431 | -7.34*** |
| γ3 | 1.1898 | 4.01*** |
| γ4 | -0.4144 | -1.55 |
| γ5 | 0.1482 | 0.75 |
Persistence:
0.915
Half-life:
8 days
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