V-Lab
Abionyx Pharma SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
46.60%
decreased by 6.96%
1 Week
57.93%
increased by 4.37%
1 Month
62.94%
increased by 9.38%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2016 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.2727 | 1.90* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4606 | 3.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0658 | 0.92 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 45.7864 | 5.41*** |
| γ2 | -71.9481 | -5.77*** |
| γ3 | 37.0477 | 3.60*** |
| γ4 | -15.4076 | -1.44 |
| γ5 | 12.8609 | 1.17 |
| γ6 | -17.2074 | -1.67* |
| γ7 | 13.0262 | 1.66* |
| γ8 | -4.4409 | -1.11 |
Persistence:
0.526
Half-life:
1 days
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