V-Lab
Abionyx Pharma SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
53.25%
decreased by 51.07%
1 Week
59.80%
decreased by 44.52%
1 Month
62.64%
decreased by 41.68%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 02:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2016 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.1173 | 1.96** |
| αARCH | 0.4352 | 3.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0590 | 0.82 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 43.0486 | 5.50*** |
| γ2 | -68.0667 | -6.02*** |
| γ3 | 35.7138 | 3.81*** |
| γ4 | -14.7763 | -1.53 |
| γ5 | 11.5456 | 1.15 |
| γ6 | -16.0298 | -1.65* |
| γ7 | 13.0569 | 1.65* |
| γ8 | -5.0031 | -1.22 |
0.494
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.1173 | 1.96** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4352 | 3.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0590 | 0.82 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 43.0486 | 5.50*** |
| γ2 | -68.0667 | -6.02*** |
| γ3 | 35.7138 | 3.81*** |
| γ4 | -14.7763 | -1.53 |
| γ5 | 11.5456 | 1.15 |
| γ6 | -16.0298 | -1.65* |
| γ7 | 13.0569 | 1.65* |
| γ8 | -5.0031 | -1.22 |
Persistence:
0.494
Half-life:
1 days
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