V-Lab
Abionyx Pharma SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
50.11%
decreased by 1.83%
1 Week
63.36%
increased by 11.42%
1 Month
69.41%
increased by 17.47%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2016 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.5654 | 1.94* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4770 | 4.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0644 | 1.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 49.2214 | 5.51*** |
| γ2 | -76.6909 | -5.70*** |
| γ3 | 38.6394 | 3.46*** |
| γ4 | -16.2558 | -1.39 |
| γ5 | 14.3557 | 1.21 |
| γ6 | -18.4204 | -1.75* |
| γ7 | 13.3857 | 1.81* |
| γ8 | -4.6883 | -1.24 |
Persistence:
0.541
Half-life:
1 days
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