Abionyx Pharma SA Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
93.00%
1 Week
100.28%
1 Month
128.49%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2016 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 231% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.52 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1114 | 3.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0886 | 14.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9113 | 150.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.8160 | -6.79*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5228 | 4.51*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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