V-Lab
Alice Queen Limited Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
197.73%
increased by 17.11%
1 Week
197.51%
increased by 16.89%
1 Month
196.69%
increased by 16.07%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 9, 2004 to Aug 7, 2026Illiquid Asset
Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 5.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0584 | 26.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9343 | 399.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0040 | 0.18 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9170 | 31.11*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
77 days
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