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V-Lab

Alice Queen Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

173.98%

decreased by 8.56%

1 Week

173.45%

decreased by 9.09%

1 Month

171.77%

decreased by 10.77%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 05:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Alice Queen Limited S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 9, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6782
4.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0854
6.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8782
44.37***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.3013
-0.80
γ20.2911
0.49
γ30.2612
0.63
γ4-0.7623
-1.97**
γ50.9804
2.90***
γ6-0.6838
-2.11**
γ70.4160
1.25
γ8-0.4380
-1.23
γ90.3265
1.13

Persistence:

0.964

Half-life:

19 days