V-Lab
Alice Queen Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
173.98%
decreased by 8.56%
1 Week
173.45%
decreased by 9.09%
1 Month
171.77%
decreased by 10.77%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 05:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 9, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6782 | 4.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0854 | 6.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8782 | 44.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.3013 | -0.80 |
| γ2 | 0.2911 | 0.49 |
| γ3 | 0.2612 | 0.63 |
| γ4 | -0.7623 | -1.97** |
| γ5 | 0.9804 | 2.90*** |
| γ6 | -0.6838 | -2.11** |
| γ7 | 0.4160 | 1.25 |
| γ8 | -0.4380 | -1.23 |
| γ9 | 0.3265 | 1.13 |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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