V-Lab
BEVEST ASA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
71.80%
decreased by 14.19%
1 Week
78.49%
decreased by 7.50%
1 Month
84.01%
decreased by 1.98%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:50 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 21, 2020 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6534 | 4.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3127 | 4.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3881 | 4.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.8736 | 1.41 |
| γ2 | -1.4701 | -1.64 |
| γ3 | 2.7076 | 4.13*** |
| γ4 | -4.5084 | -5.56*** |
| γ5 | 3.1483 | 4.44*** |
Persistence:
0.701
Half-life:
2 days
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