V-Lab
Helix Resources Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
175.19%
increased by 1.89%
1 Week
186.50%
increased by 13.20%
1 Month
210.09%
increased by 36.79%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9272 | 5.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.1116 | 6.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7969 | 25.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0414 | 1.17 |
| γ2 | -0.0851 | -1.81* |
| γ3 | 0.0959 | 3.18*** |
| γ4 | -0.0811 | -2.27** |
| γ5 | 0.0179 | 0.44 |
| γ6 | 0.0661 | 1.73* |
| γ7 | -0.0961 | -3.61*** |
0.909
Persistence7d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9272 | 5.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1116 | 6.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7969 | 25.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0414 | 1.17 |
| γ2 | -0.0851 | -1.81* |
| γ3 | 0.0959 | 3.18*** |
| γ4 | -0.0811 | -2.27** |
| γ5 | 0.0179 | 0.44 |
| γ6 | 0.0661 | 1.73* |
| γ7 | -0.0961 | -3.61*** |
Persistence:
0.909
Half-life:
7 days
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