Helix Resources Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
172.11%
decreased by 3.56%
1 Week
183.77%
increased by 8.10%
1 Month
208.32%
increased by 32.65%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 08:47 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9403 | 5.84*** |
| αARCH | 0.1099 | 6.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8012 | 25.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0434 | 1.23 |
| γ2 | -0.0880 | -1.87* |
| γ3 | 0.0979 | 3.26*** |
| γ4 | -0.0834 | -2.35** |
| γ5 | 0.0211 | 0.52 |
| γ6 | 0.0622 | 1.64 |
| γ7 | -0.0928 | -3.52*** |
0.911
Persistence7d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9403 | 5.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1099 | 6.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8012 | 25.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0434 | 1.23 |
| γ2 | -0.0880 | -1.87* |
| γ3 | 0.0979 | 3.26*** |
| γ4 | -0.0834 | -2.35** |
| γ5 | 0.0211 | 0.52 |
| γ6 | 0.0622 | 1.64 |
| γ7 | -0.0928 | -3.52*** |
Persistence:
0.911
Half-life:
7 days
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