V-Lab
Helix Resources Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
208.72%
increased by 22.98%
1 Week
214.36%
increased by 28.62%
1 Month
226.48%
increased by 40.74%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9326 | 5.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1138 | 6.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7907 | 24.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0442 | 1.27 |
| γ2 | -0.0892 | -1.93* |
| γ3 | 0.0976 | 3.19*** |
| γ4 | -0.0798 | -2.19** |
| γ5 | 0.0126 | 0.31 |
| γ6 | 0.0750 | 1.96* |
| γ7 | -0.1038 | -3.86*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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