V-Lab
Nitta Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
32.90%
increased by 3.43%
1 Week
31.38%
increased by 1.91%
1 Month
27.38%
decreased by 2.09%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2674 | 2.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1167 | 6.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8017 | 30.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0403 | 0.57 |
| γ2 | -0.1123 | -1.21 |
| γ3 | 0.1620 | 3.87*** |
| γ4 | -0.1612 | -4.58*** |
| γ5 | 0.1020 | 3.14*** |
| γ6 | -0.0301 | -0.97 |
| γ7 | -0.0216 | -0.69 |
| γ8 | 0.0400 | 1.65* |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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