V-Lab
Nitta Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
35.48%
increased by 9.93%
1 Week
33.78%
increased by 8.23%
1 Month
29.17%
increased by 3.62%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2656 | 2.87*** |
| αARCH | 0.1152 | 6.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8057 | 31.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0393 | 0.56 |
| γ2 | -0.1107 | -1.19 |
| γ3 | 0.1613 | 3.85*** |
| γ4 | -0.1616 | -4.60*** |
| γ5 | 0.1035 | 3.20*** |
| γ6 | -0.0326 | -1.05 |
| γ7 | -0.0190 | -0.61 |
| γ8 | 0.0383 | 1.57 |
0.921
Persistence8d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2656 | 2.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1152 | 6.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8057 | 31.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0393 | 0.56 |
| γ2 | -0.1107 | -1.19 |
| γ3 | 0.1613 | 3.85*** |
| γ4 | -0.1616 | -4.60*** |
| γ5 | 0.1035 | 3.20*** |
| γ6 | -0.0326 | -1.05 |
| γ7 | -0.0190 | -0.61 |
| γ8 | 0.0383 | 1.57 |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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