Nitta Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
29.73%
increased by 2.11%
1 Week
28.49%
increased by 0.87%
1 Month
25.29%
decreased by 2.33%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2682 | 2.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1171 | 6.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7985 | 30.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0418 | 0.59 |
| γ2 | -0.1146 | -1.24 |
| γ3 | 0.1635 | 3.92*** |
| γ4 | -0.1616 | -4.60*** |
| γ5 | 0.1008 | 3.12*** |
| γ6 | -0.0271 | -0.88 |
| γ7 | -0.0259 | -0.83 |
| γ8 | 0.0437 | 1.81* |
Persistence:
0.916
Half-life:
8 days
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