V-Lab
Nitta Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
40.20%
increased by 3.46%
1 Week
40.11%
increased by 3.37%
1 Month
39.80%
increased by 3.06%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.4789 | 5.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0713 | 32.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9852 | 336.14*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2312 | 12.18*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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