Nitta Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
30.07%
increased by 1.05%
1 Week
30.78%
increased by 1.76%
1 Month
32.31%
increased by 3.29%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 204% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0752 | 16.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6310 | 47.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1533 | 17.56*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0237 | 2.78*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0312 | 4.51*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9638 | 121.44*** |
Persistence:
0.783
Half-life:
3 days
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