V-Lab
Nitta Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
30.05%
decreased by 2.55%
1 Week
31.01%
decreased by 1.59%
1 Month
31.98%
decreased by 0.62%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 09:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 200% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 200% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0757 | 4.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6303 | 14.34*** |
| γleverage | 0.1516 | 4.25*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0237 | 2.77*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0313 | 4.58*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9637 | 123.88*** |
0.782
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0757 | 4.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6303 | 14.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1516 | 4.25*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0237 | 2.77*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0313 | 4.58*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9637 | 123.88*** |
Persistence:
0.782
Half-life:
3 days
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