Nitta Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
42.53%
decreased by 6.75%
1 Week
40.10%
decreased by 9.18%
1 Month
37.61%
decreased by 11.67%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 07:33 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 200% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 200% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0758 | 4.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6312 | 14.41*** |
| γleverage | 0.1512 | 4.25*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0238 | 2.77*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0314 | 4.59*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9636 | 123.68*** |
0.783
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0758 | 4.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6312 | 14.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1512 | 4.25*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0238 | 2.77*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0314 | 4.59*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9636 | 123.68*** |
Persistence:
0.783
Half-life:
3 days
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