Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
116.66%
decreased by 6.38%
1 Week
121.85%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Month
131.53%
increased by 8.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:40 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2019 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 51 | |
| αARCH | 0.2569 | 3.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7329 | 12.79*** |
| γleverage | -0.2108 | -1.84* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1722 | 1.29 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.2083 | 3.62*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7917 | 13.73*** |
0.884
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2569 | 3.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7329 | 12.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2108 | -1.84* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1722 | 1.29 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2083 | 3.62*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7917 | 13.73*** |
Persistence:
0.884
Half-life:
6 days
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