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V-Lab

Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

192.96%

decreased by 27.25%

1 Week

183.54%

decreased by 36.67%

1 Month

161.41%

decreased by 58.80%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2019 to Aug 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2621
21.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7357
46.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2164
-12.11***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2850
0.74
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3228
0.65
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6772
1.31

Persistence:

0.890

Half-life:

6 days