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Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

116.66%

decreased by 6.38%

1 Week

121.85%

decreased by 1.19%

1 Month

131.53%

increased by 8.49%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:40 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2019 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow51
αARCH0.2569
3.03***
βGARCH0.7329
12.79***
γleverage-0.2108
-1.84*
λ₁tau intercept0.1722
1.29
λ₂forecast adj.0.2083
3.62***
λ₃tau persistence0.7917
13.73***

0.884

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2569
3.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7329
12.79***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2108
-1.84*
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1722
1.29
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2083
3.62***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7917
13.73***

Persistence:

0.884

Half-life:

6 days