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Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

164.55%

increased by 3.18%

1 Week

163.97%

increased by 2.60%

1 Month

161.69%

increased by 0.32%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:40 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2019 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 144 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~144 daysv = 3.29 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run29.7997
1.67*
αscore0.1638
15.91***
βpersistence0.9952
359.01***
νDF3.2949
20.21***

0.995

Persistence

144d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

29.7997
1.67*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1638
15.91***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9952
359.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.2949
20.21***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

144 days