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V-Lab

Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

128.38%

decreased by 32.70%

1 Week

128.73%

decreased by 32.35%

1 Month

130.06%

decreased by 31.02%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

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graph of Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2019 to Aug 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

95.5355
6.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1557
85.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9940
1,184.79***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.1845
639.49***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

116 days