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Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

97.30%

decreased by 13.42%

1 Week

98.10%

decreased by 12.62%

1 Month

101.10%

decreased by 9.62%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2019 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~116 daysv = 2.20 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst89.8499
1.68*
αARCH0.1557
21.32***
βGARCH0.9941
297.18***
νDF2.1986
148.21***

0.994

Persistence

116d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

89.8499
1.68*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1557
21.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9941
297.18***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.1986
148.21***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

116 days