V-Lab
Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
50.35%
decreased by 1.57%
1 Week
51.99%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
57.85%
increased by 5.93%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2019 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.27 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 66.0366 | 6.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1586 | 84.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9940 | 1,159.89*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.2698 | 433.83*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
116 days
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