V-Lab
Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
128.38%
decreased by 32.70%
1 Week
128.73%
decreased by 32.35%
1 Month
130.06%
decreased by 31.02%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2019 to Aug 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 95.5355 | 6.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1557 | 85.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9940 | 1,184.79*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.1845 | 639.49*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
116 days
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