V-Lab
Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
33.06%
decreased by 6.75%
1 Week
35.69%
decreased by 4.12%
1 Month
44.37%
increased by 4.56%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2019 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 115 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 64.3606 | 6.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1579 | 84.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9940 | 1,151.78*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.2759 | 421.23*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
115 days
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