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V-Lab

Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

33.06%

decreased by 6.75%

1 Week

35.69%

decreased by 4.12%

1 Month

44.37%

increased by 4.56%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2019 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 115 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

64.3606
6.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1579
84.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9940
1,151.78***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.2759
421.23***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

115 days