Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
164.55%
1 Week
163.97%
1 Month
161.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2019 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 144 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 29.7997 | 1.67* |
| αscore | 0.1638 | 15.91*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9952 | 359.01*** |
| νDF | 3.2949 | 20.21*** |
0.995
Persistence144d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 29.7997 | 1.67* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1638 | 15.91*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9952 | 359.01*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2949 | 20.21*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
144 days
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