V-Lab
Trusval Technology GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
48.84%
increased by 5.71%
1 Week
51.65%
increased by 8.52%
1 Month
60.70%
increased by 17.57%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:59 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2017 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 42-day half-lifev = 2.39 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 44.6736 | 0.83 |
| αARCH | 0.1746 | 19.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9838 | 52.35*** |
| νDF | 2.3927 | 29.58*** |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 44.6736 | 0.83 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1746 | 19.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9838 | 52.35*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.3927 | 29.58*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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