Skip to main content
V-Lab

Trusval Technology GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

77.70%

decreased by 21.20%

1 Week

78.87%

decreased by 20.03%

1 Month

83.00%

decreased by 15.90%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Trusval Technology GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 23, 2017 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

51.2799
3.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1803
87.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9866
279.80***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.4282
128.62***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

51 days