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V-Lab

Trusval Technology GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

48.84%

increased by 5.71%

1 Week

51.65%

increased by 8.52%

1 Month

60.70%

increased by 17.57%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:59 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Trusval Technology GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 23, 2017 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 42-day half-lifev = 2.39 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst44.6736
0.83
αARCH0.1746
19.60***
βGARCH0.9838
52.35***
νDF2.3927
29.58***

0.984

Persistence

42d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

44.6736
0.83
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1746
19.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9838
52.35***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.3927
29.58***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days