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V-Lab

Trusval Technology GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

45.99%

decreased by 9.11%

1 Week

48.81%

decreased by 6.29%

1 Month

57.90%

increased by 2.80%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Trusval Technology GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 23, 2017 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

44.9190
3.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1771
81.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9853
242.38***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.4425
114.28***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days