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Trusval Technology GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

43.42%

decreased by 9.96%

1 Week

46.61%

decreased by 6.77%

1 Month

56.66%

increased by 3.28%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Trusval Technology GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 23, 2017 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 44-day half-lifev = 2.42 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst44.8188
0.85
αARCH0.1765
20.02***
βGARCH0.9845
56.10***
νDF2.4175
29.09***

0.984

Persistence

44d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

44.8188
0.85
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1765
20.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9845
56.10***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.4175
29.09***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days