Trusval Technology GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
38.10%
increased by 1.70%
1 Week
39.45%
increased by 3.05%
1 Month
43.65%
increased by 7.25%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:45 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2017 to Oct 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 25-day half-lifev = 3.73 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 14.2812 | 0.97 |
| αscore | 0.1629 | 7.22*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9731 | 35.51*** |
| νDF | 3.7350 | 3.68*** |
0.973
Persistence25d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 14.2812 | 0.97 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1629 | 7.22*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9731 | 35.51*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7350 | 3.68*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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