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V-Lab

Trusval Technology GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

38.10%

increased by 1.70%

1 Week

39.45%

increased by 3.05%

1 Month

43.65%

increased by 7.25%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:45 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Trusval Technology GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 23, 2017 to Oct 27, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 25-day half-lifev = 3.73 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run14.2812
0.97
αscore0.1629
7.22***
βpersistence0.9731
35.51***
νDF3.7350
3.68***

0.973

Persistence

25d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

14.2812
0.97
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1629
7.22***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9731
35.51***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.7350
3.68***

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days