Trusval Technology MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
53.94%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
53.00%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Month
50.93%
decreased by 3.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2017 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9704 | 1.45 |
| αARCH | 0.3141 | 2.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5828 | 12.23*** |
0.897
Persistence6d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9704 | 1.45 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3141 | 2.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5828 | 12.23*** |
Persistence:
0.897
Half-life:
6 days
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