Trusval Technology GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
34.24%
increased by 0.28%
1 Week
35.29%
increased by 1.33%
1 Month
38.19%
increased by 4.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:44 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2017 to Oct 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3835 | 3.63*** |
| αARCH | 0.1671 | 3.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8168 | 24.94*** |
| γleverage | -0.0670 | -1.00 |
0.950
Persistence14d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3835 | 3.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1671 | 3.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8168 | 24.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0670 | -1.00 |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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