V-Lab
Trusval Technology GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
57.22%
decreased by 5.43%
1 Week
56.11%
decreased by 6.54%
1 Month
52.77%
decreased by 9.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2017 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 13-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4051 | 3.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.1776 | 3.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8076 | 23.36*** |
| γleverage | -0.0731 | -1.04 |
0.949
Persistence13d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4051 | 3.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1776 | 3.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8076 | 23.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0731 | -1.04 |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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