Trusval Technology GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
42.45%
decreased by 3.18%
1 Week
42.64%
decreased by 2.99%
1 Month
43.16%
decreased by 2.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2017 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3785 | 3.63*** |
| αARCH | 0.1671 | 3.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8183 | 25.30*** |
| γleverage | -0.0675 | -1.01 |
0.952
Persistence14d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3785 | 3.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1671 | 3.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8183 | 25.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0675 | -1.01 |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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