V-Lab
Trusval Technology APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
54.48%
1 Week
53.82%
1 Month
51.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2017 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. The volatility power δ = 1.65 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3017 | 2.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.1482 | 4.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8159 | 22.91*** |
| γleverage | -0.1566 | -1.55 |
| δpower | 1.6535 | 4.41*** |
0.950
Persistence14d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3017 | 2.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1482 | 4.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8159 | 22.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1566 | -1.55 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6535 | 4.41*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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