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V-Lab
V-Lab

Trusval Technology APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

54.48%

decreased by 5.60%

1 Week

53.82%

decreased by 6.26%

1 Month

51.87%

decreased by 8.21%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Trusval Technology APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 23, 2017 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. The volatility power δ = 1.65 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifeδ = 1.65 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.3017
2.64***
αARCH0.1482
4.66***
βGARCH0.8159
22.91***
γleverage-0.1566
-1.55
δpower1.6535
4.41***

0.950

Persistence

14d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3017
2.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1482
4.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8159
22.91***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1566
-1.55
δ

power

Transformation power

1.6535
4.41***

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

14 days