V-Lab
Shimizu Corp APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
36.42%
decreased by 1.39%
1 Week
36.60%
decreased by 1.21%
1 Month
37.14%
decreased by 0.67%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 80% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.58 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1767 | 15.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1254 | 33.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8448 | 183.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1831 | 11.10*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5821 | 32.84*** |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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