Shimizu Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
38.53%
increased by 4.02%
1 Week
37.90%
increased by 3.39%
1 Month
36.41%
increased by 1.90%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 12:50 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2681 | 8.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1302 | 8.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7777 | 33.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0507 | 4.66*** |
| γ2 | -0.0855 | -5.05*** |
| γ3 | 0.0515 | 4.43*** |
| γ4 | -0.0282 | -2.80*** |
| γ5 | 0.0268 | 2.44** |
| γ6 | -0.0219 | -2.38** |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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