V-Lab
Concord Biotech Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
39.19%
increased by 2.24%
1 Week
39.81%
increased by 2.86%
1 Month
41.36%
increased by 4.41%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 07:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 18, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0163 | 5.82*** |
| αARCH | 0.0706 | 1.90* |
| βGARCH | 0.8553 | 12.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0035 | -0.10 |
0.926
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0163 | 5.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0706 | 1.90* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8553 | 12.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0035 | -0.10 |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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