V-Lab
Concord Biotech Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
49.84%
decreased by 2.47%
1 Week
51.26%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Month
51.87%
decreased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 18, 2023 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7668 | 5.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0883 | 1.48 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3765 | 1.17 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -2.5674 | -0.95 |
| γ2 | 5.9231 | 1.37 |
| γ3 | -8.1684 | -2.44** |
| γ4 | 8.8197 | 3.31*** |
| γ5 | -5.4900 | -3.81*** |
Persistence:
0.465
Half-life:
1 days
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