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V-Lab

Concord Biotech Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

41.45%

decreased by 1.25%

1 Week

41.79%

decreased by 0.91%

1 Month

42.62%

decreased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 07:07 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Concord Biotech Limited S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 18, 2023 to Oct 1, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0062
5.88***
αARCH0.0699
1.95*
βGARCH0.8544
12.56***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0057
-0.17

0.924

Persistence

9d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0062
5.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0699
1.95*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8544
12.56***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0057
-0.17

Persistence:

0.924

Half-life:

9 days