V-Lab
Concord Biotech Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
46.28%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Week
48.24%
increased by 1.50%
1 Month
49.08%
increased by 2.34%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 18, 2023 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7734 | 5.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0854 | 1.46 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3816 | 1.16 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -2.4049 | -0.90 |
| γ2 | 5.5991 | 1.32 |
| γ3 | -7.8420 | -2.36** |
| γ4 | 8.5329 | 3.22*** |
| γ5 | -5.3191 | -3.78*** |
Persistence:
0.467
Half-life:
1 days
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