V-Lab
Concord Biotech Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
41.45%
decreased by 1.25%
1 Week
41.79%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Month
42.62%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 07:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 18, 2023 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0062 | 5.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.0699 | 1.95* |
| βGARCH | 0.8544 | 12.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0057 | -0.17 |
0.924
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0062 | 5.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0699 | 1.95* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8544 | 12.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0057 | -0.17 |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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