V-Lab
Concord Biotech Limited MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
44.03%
decreased by 1.88%
1 Week
44.74%
decreased by 1.17%
1 Month
46.72%
increased by 0.81%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 07:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 18, 2023 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0645 | 1.58 |
| βGARCH | 0.8460 | 11.48*** |
| γleverage | 0.0522 | 0.53 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 3.0899 | 0.35 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0763 | 0.46 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.5879 | 0.61 |
0.937
Persistence11d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0645 | 1.58 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8460 | 11.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0522 | 0.53 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.0899 | 0.35 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0763 | 0.46 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5879 | 0.61 |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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