V-Lab
Concord Biotech Limited MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
45.24%
decreased by 2.28%
1 Week
46.31%
decreased by 1.21%
1 Month
49.35%
increased by 1.83%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 18, 2023 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 75% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0813 | 3.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8355 | 12.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0608 | 2.47** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.7607 | 0.26 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0473 | 0.18 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6923 | 0.57 |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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