V-Lab
Concord Biotech Limited MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
38.53%
increased by 0.84%
1 Week
40.11%
increased by 2.42%
1 Month
44.02%
increased by 6.33%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 18, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 102% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0699 | 3.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8345 | 12.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0716 | 2.73*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.8030 | 0.23 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0535 | 0.18 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6622 | 0.45 |
Persistence:
0.940
Half-life:
11 days
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