Concord Biotech Limited MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
64.67%
increased by 14.47%
1 Week
63.55%
increased by 13.35%
1 Month
60.32%
increased by 10.12%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 18, 2023 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0654 | 1.60 |
| βGARCH | 0.8465 | 10.81*** |
| γleverage | 0.0444 | 0.46 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 2.9294 | 0.33 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0724 | 0.45 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.5952 | 0.59 |
0.934
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0654 | 1.60 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8465 | 10.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0444 | 0.46 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.9294 | 0.33 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0724 | 0.45 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5952 | 0.59 |
Persistence:
0.934
Half-life:
10 days
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