Concord Biotech Limited MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
37.00%
increased by 2.74%
1 Week
38.58%
increased by 4.32%
1 Month
43.80%
increased by 9.54%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 18, 2023 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 75% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0855 | 3.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8354 | 13.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0643 | 2.60*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.4057 | 0.35 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0360 | 0.20 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7442 | 0.96 |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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