V-Lab
Concord Biotech Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
40.87%
increased by 2.94%
1 Week
40.89%
increased by 2.96%
1 Month
40.94%
increased by 3.01%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 07:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 18, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 4.13 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.6678 | 0.75 |
| αARCH | 0.0520 | 0.63 |
| βGARCH | 0.9091 | 8.64*** |
| νDF | 4.1348 | 0.23 |
0.909
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.6678 | 0.75 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0520 | 0.63 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9091 | 8.64*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1348 | 0.23 |
Persistence:
0.909
Half-life:
7 days
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