V-Lab
Concord Biotech Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
42.00%
decreased by 1.75%
1 Week
41.86%
decreased by 1.89%
1 Month
41.54%
decreased by 2.21%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 07:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 18, 2023 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 4.20 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.7242 | 0.78 |
| αARCH | 0.0538 | 0.64 |
| βGARCH | 0.9079 | 9.07*** |
| νDF | 4.1974 | 0.24 |
0.908
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.7242 | 0.78 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0538 | 0.64 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9079 | 9.07*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1974 | 0.24 |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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