Concord Biotech Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
39.60%
increased by 3.65%
1 Week
39.86%
increased by 3.91%
1 Month
40.44%
increased by 4.49%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 18, 2023 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.6981 | 3.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0617 | 2.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9045 | 35.79*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1833 | 1.05 |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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