Concord Biotech Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
56.53%
increased by 6.27%
1 Week
53.98%
increased by 3.72%
1 Month
48.14%
decreased by 2.12%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 18, 2023 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 4.63 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 6.7859 | 0.98 |
| αscore | 0.0603 | 0.72 |
| βpersistence | 0.8948 | 9.56*** |
| νDF | 4.6260 | 0.23 |
0.895
Persistence6d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 6.7859 | 0.98 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0603 | 0.72 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.8948 | 9.56*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6260 | 0.23 |
Persistence:
0.895
Half-life:
6 days
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