V-Lab
Concord Biotech Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
39.53%
decreased by 2.06%
1 Week
39.87%
decreased by 1.72%
1 Month
40.59%
decreased by 1.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 18, 2023 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.7990 | 2.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0581 | 2.53** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9035 | 32.69*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0911 | 0.98 |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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