V-Lab
Gujarat Energy Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
29.89%
decreased by 1.40%
1 Week
30.41%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Month
31.64%
increased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2015 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifev = 4.22 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.3936 | 1.74* |
| αARCH | 0.1115 | 3.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9211 | 19.93*** |
| νDF | 4.2194 | 1.29 |
0.921
Persistence8d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.3936 | 1.74* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1115 | 3.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9211 | 19.93*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2194 | 1.29 |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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