V-Lab
Gujarat Energy Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
36.99%
increased by 7.99%
1 Week
36.47%
increased by 7.47%
1 Month
35.18%
increased by 6.18%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 07:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2015 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifev = 4.21 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.4046 | 1.73* |
| αARCH | 0.1120 | 3.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9210 | 19.79*** |
| νDF | 4.2051 | 1.30 |
0.921
Persistence8d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.4046 | 1.73* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1120 | 3.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9210 | 19.79*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2051 | 1.30 |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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