Gujarat Energy Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
53.45%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
55.77%
increased by 1.57%
1 Month
57.53%
increased by 3.33%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2015 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4022 | 6.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0849 | 3.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5803 | 4.65*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.3353 | 0.69 |
| γ2 | 0.0910 | 0.10 |
| γ3 | -0.6256 | -0.68 |
| γ4 | 0.0009 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 0.4625 | 0.96 |
| γ6 | -0.9503 | -2.13** |
| γ7 | 1.8019 | 4.67*** |
| γ8 | -2.2638 | -4.94*** |
| γ9 | 3.0841 | 4.64*** |
Persistence:
0.665
Half-life:
2 days
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