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V-Lab

Gujarat Energy Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

53.45%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Week

55.77%

increased by 1.57%

1 Month

57.53%

increased by 3.33%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Gujarat Energy Ltd SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 2015 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4022
6.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0849
3.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5803
4.65***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.3353
0.69
γ20.0910
0.10
γ3-0.6256
-0.68
γ40.0009
0.00
γ50.4625
0.96
γ6-0.9503
-2.13**
γ71.8019
4.67***
γ8-2.2638
-4.94***
γ93.0841
4.64***

Persistence:

0.665

Half-life:

2 days