V-Lab
Gujarat Energy Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
53.91%
increased by 0.40%
1 Week
56.96%
increased by 3.45%
1 Month
59.31%
increased by 5.80%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2015 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3941 | 6.50*** |
| αARCH | 0.0934 | 3.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5796 | 5.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.2969 | 0.62 |
| γ2 | 0.1549 | 0.17 |
| γ3 | -0.7112 | -0.76 |
| γ4 | 0.1344 | 0.18 |
| γ5 | 0.2941 | 0.59 |
| γ6 | -0.7134 | -1.60 |
| γ7 | 1.5206 | 3.97*** |
| γ8 | -1.9876 | -4.43*** |
| γ9 | 2.7612 | 4.45*** |
0.673
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3941 | 6.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0934 | 3.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5796 | 5.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.2969 | 0.62 |
| γ2 | 0.1549 | 0.17 |
| γ3 | -0.7112 | -0.76 |
| γ4 | 0.1344 | 0.18 |
| γ5 | 0.2941 | 0.59 |
| γ6 | -0.7134 | -1.60 |
| γ7 | 1.5206 | 3.97*** |
| γ8 | -1.9876 | -4.43*** |
| γ9 | 2.7612 | 4.45*** |
Persistence:
0.673
Half-life:
2 days
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