V-Lab
Tng Invt & Trading Jsc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
37.19%
increased by 11.53%
1 Week
36.11%
increased by 10.45%
1 Month
33.15%
increased by 7.49%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 02:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2009 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4164 | 10.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0946 | 6.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8365 | 32.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0015 | 0.11 |
| γ2 | 0.0218 | 1.02 |
| γ3 | -0.0769 | -3.49*** |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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