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V-Lab

Tng Invt & Trading Jsc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

37.19%

increased by 11.53%

1 Week

36.11%

increased by 10.45%

1 Month

33.15%

increased by 7.49%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 02:54 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tng Invt & Trading Jsc SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 16, 2009 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4164
10.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0946
6.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8365
32.07***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.0015
0.11
γ20.0218
1.02
γ3-0.0769
-3.49***

Persistence:

0.931

Half-life:

10 days