V-Lab
Tng Invt & Trading Jsc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
30.57%
increased by 0.21%
1 Week
31.26%
increased by 0.90%
1 Month
32.88%
increased by 2.52%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:50 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3631 | 9.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0962 | 6.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8243 | 29.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0080 | -0.21 |
| γ2 | 0.0056 | 0.09 |
| γ3 | 0.0672 | 1.38 |
| γ4 | -0.1507 | -3.53*** |
| γ5 | 0.1276 | 4.14*** |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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