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V-Lab

HeidelbergCement AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

34.45%

decreased by 1.23%

1 Week

34.60%

decreased by 1.08%

1 Month

35.09%

decreased by 0.59%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:11 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of HeidelbergCement AG S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4898
3.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0874
9.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8795
72.14***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0211
0.51
γ20.0286
0.52
γ3-0.1217
-4.22***
γ40.1405
4.63***
γ5-0.1274
-3.83***
γ60.0884
2.81***
γ7-0.0223
-0.75
γ8-0.0173
-0.74

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

21 days