V-Lab
HeidelbergCement AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
26.62%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Week
27.35%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
29.58%
increased by 2.12%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4784 | 3.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0880 | 9.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8780 | 71.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0198 | 0.48 |
| γ2 | 0.0304 | 0.55 |
| γ3 | -0.1222 | -4.27*** |
| γ4 | 0.1403 | 4.70*** |
| γ5 | -0.1276 | -3.90*** |
| γ6 | 0.0900 | 2.89*** |
| γ7 | -0.0252 | -0.85 |
| γ8 | -0.0148 | -0.64 |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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