V-Lab
HeidelbergCement AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
34.45%
decreased by 1.23%
1 Week
34.60%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Month
35.09%
decreased by 0.59%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4898 | 3.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0874 | 9.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8795 | 72.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0211 | 0.51 |
| γ2 | 0.0286 | 0.52 |
| γ3 | -0.1217 | -4.22*** |
| γ4 | 0.1405 | 4.63*** |
| γ5 | -0.1274 | -3.83*** |
| γ6 | 0.0884 | 2.81*** |
| γ7 | -0.0223 | -0.75 |
| γ8 | -0.0173 | -0.74 |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
Other HeidelbergCement AG Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities