V-Lab
HeidelbergCement AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
34.07%
increased by 1.44%
1 Week
34.15%
increased by 1.52%
1 Month
34.44%
increased by 1.81%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 187% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 187% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0740 | 4.35*** |
| αARCH | 0.0391 | 4.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9108 | 98.78*** |
| γleverage | 0.0730 | 3.16*** |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0740 | 4.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0391 | 4.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9108 | 98.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0730 | 3.16*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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