HeidelbergCement AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
26.41%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
26.74%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
27.93%
increased by 1.17%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 02:58 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 184% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 184% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0738 | 4.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.0392 | 4.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9109 | 98.77*** |
| γleverage | 0.0723 | 3.13*** |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0738 | 4.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0392 | 4.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9109 | 98.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0723 | 3.13*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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