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HeidelbergCement AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

34.58%

increased by 2.26%

1 Week

34.69%

increased by 2.37%

1 Month

35.10%

increased by 2.78%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of HeidelbergCement AG GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 66-day half-lifev = 4.49 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst6.1993
1.03
αARCH0.0810
9.56***
βGARCH0.9896
94.78***
νDF4.4909
3.51***

0.990

Persistence

66d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.1993
1.03
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0810
9.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9896
94.78***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4909
3.51***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days