V-Lab
HeidelbergCement AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
34.06%
decreased by 1.36%
1 Week
34.18%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Month
34.64%
decreased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.2462 | 4.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0806 | 38.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9898 | 386.50*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4946 | 14.17*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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