V-Lab
HeidelbergCement AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
24.66%
decreased by 1.49%
1 Week
25.05%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Month
26.47%
increased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.1564 | 4.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0810 | 38.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9895 | 377.53*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4875 | 14.03*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
66 days
Other HeidelbergCement AG Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities