V-Lab
HeidelbergCement AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
34.58%
increased by 2.26%
1 Week
34.69%
increased by 2.37%
1 Month
35.10%
increased by 2.78%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 66-day half-lifev = 4.49 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.1993 | 1.03 |
| αARCH | 0.0810 | 9.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9896 | 94.78*** |
| νDF | 4.4909 | 3.51*** |
0.990
Persistence66d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.1993 | 1.03 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0810 | 9.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9896 | 94.78*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4909 | 3.51*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
Other HeidelbergCement AG Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities