V-Lab
HeidelbergCement AG APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
30.19%
1 Week
30.56%
1 Month
31.89%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 123% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.23 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0524 | 5.34*** |
| αARCH | 0.0880 | 9.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9110 | 94.94*** |
| γleverage | 0.3147 | 5.02*** |
| δpower | 1.2338 | 8.50*** |
0.984
Persistence43d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0524 | 5.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0880 | 9.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9110 | 94.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3147 | 5.02*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2338 | 8.50*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
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