K+S AG APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
29.27%
increased by 1.43%
1 Week
29.82%
increased by 1.98%
1 Month
31.83%
increased by 3.99%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 57% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.00 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0433 | 16.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0698 | 27.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9302 | 386.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2235 | 9.15*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9986 | 21.38*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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