V-Lab
K+S AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
41.69%
increased by 5.26%
1 Week
39.75%
increased by 3.32%
1 Month
36.79%
increased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 34% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 116 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0685 | 19.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7854 | 96.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0233 | 4.74*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.1898 | 0.73 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7600 | 0.84 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.866
Half-life:
5 days
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