V-Lab
K+S AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
34.23%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
35.50%
increased by 0.82%
1 Month
38.25%
increased by 3.57%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 35% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 116 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0680 | 19.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7857 | 96.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0235 | 4.79*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.1876 | 0.73 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7608 | 0.84 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.865
Half-life:
5 days
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