V-Lab
K+S AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
38.71%
increased by 7.04%
1 Week
38.00%
increased by 6.33%
1 Month
36.02%
increased by 4.35%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2630 | 7.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0825 | 7.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8546 | 52.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0321 | 0.54 |
| γ2 | -0.0041 | -0.04 |
| γ3 | -0.1124 | -1.69* |
| γ4 | 0.2062 | 3.56*** |
| γ5 | -0.2012 | -3.91*** |
| γ6 | 0.1125 | 2.21** |
| γ7 | -0.0693 | -0.91 |
| γ8 | 0.1034 | 1.34 |
| γ9 | -0.1470 | -2.50** |
| γ10 | 0.1157 | 2.85*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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