K+S AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
37.08%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Week
36.39%
decreased by 1.36%
1 Month
34.51%
decreased by 3.24%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 06:44 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2492 | 7.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.0850 | 7.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8496 | 51.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0285 | 0.50 |
| γ2 | -0.0001 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -0.1118 | -1.73* |
| γ4 | 0.2052 | 3.63*** |
| γ5 | -0.2040 | -4.03*** |
| γ6 | 0.1182 | 2.45** |
| γ7 | -0.0735 | -1.02 |
| γ8 | 0.1045 | 1.40 |
| γ9 | -0.1481 | -2.60*** |
| γ10 | 0.1181 | 2.98*** |
0.935
Persistence10d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2492 | 7.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0850 | 7.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8496 | 51.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0285 | 0.50 |
| γ2 | -0.0001 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -0.1118 | -1.73* |
| γ4 | 0.2052 | 3.63*** |
| γ5 | -0.2040 | -4.03*** |
| γ6 | 0.1182 | 2.45** |
| γ7 | -0.0735 | -1.02 |
| γ8 | 0.1045 | 1.40 |
| γ9 | -0.1481 | -2.60*** |
| γ10 | 0.1181 | 2.98*** |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities