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V-Lab

K+S AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

38.71%

increased by 7.04%

1 Week

38.00%

increased by 6.33%

1 Month

36.02%

increased by 4.35%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of K+S AG S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2630
7.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0825
7.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8546
52.48***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0321
0.54
γ2-0.0041
-0.04
γ3-0.1124
-1.69*
γ40.2062
3.56***
γ5-0.2012
-3.91***
γ60.1125
2.21**
γ7-0.0693
-0.91
γ80.1034
1.34
γ9-0.1470
-2.50**
γ100.1157
2.85***

Persistence:

0.937

Half-life:

11 days