V-Lab
K+S AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
30.18%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
30.47%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Month
31.22%
increased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2378 | 7.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0865 | 7.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8476 | 50.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0278 | 0.47 |
| γ2 | 0.0024 | 0.02 |
| γ3 | -0.1174 | -1.75* |
| γ4 | 0.2111 | 3.61*** |
| γ5 | -0.2031 | -3.92*** |
| γ6 | 0.1102 | 2.13** |
| γ7 | -0.0661 | -0.85 |
| γ8 | 0.1019 | 1.30 |
| γ9 | -0.1461 | -2.45** |
| γ10 | 0.1145 | 2.79*** |
Persistence:
0.934
Half-life:
10 days
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