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K+S AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

38.12%

increased by 1.05%

1 Week

38.08%

increased by 1.01%

1 Month

37.93%

increased by 0.86%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 06:44 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of K+S AG GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-lifev = 4.13 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run5.5250
1.21
αscore0.0718
6.64***
βpersistence0.9818
64.56***
νDF4.1292
2.65***

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

5.5250
1.21
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0718
6.64***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9818
64.56***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1292
2.65***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days