Kuaishou Technology GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
56.25%
decreased by 4.70%
1 Week
59.68%
decreased by 1.27%
1 Month
70.98%
increased by 10.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:25 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2021 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-lifev = 3.26 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 116.9821 | 1.95* |
| αscore | 0.1190 | 8.04*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9885 | 204.15*** |
| νDF | 3.2594 | 5.58*** |
0.988
Persistence60d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 116.9821 | 1.95* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1190 | 8.04*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9885 | 204.15*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2594 | 5.58*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
60 days
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