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Wuxi Honghui New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

29.04%

decreased by 1.93%

1 Week

30.12%

decreased by 0.85%

1 Month

34.06%

increased by 3.09%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:27 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Wuxi Honghui New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 29, 2016 to Sep 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 689 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~689 daysv = 4.20 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst129.1364
3.29***
αARCH0.1045
14.98***
βGARCH0.9990
4,802.86***
νDF4.2001
6.67***

0.999

Persistence

689d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

129.1364
3.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1045
14.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
4,802.86***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2001
6.67***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

689 days