V-Lab
Wuxi Honghui New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
53.34%
increased by 9.59%
1 Week
53.91%
increased by 10.16%
1 Month
56.10%
increased by 12.35%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2016 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 685 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 130.4936 | 13.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1039 | 59.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1816 | 26.85*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
685 days
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