V-Lab
Wuxi Honghui New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
63.98%
increased by 1.18%
1 Week
64.44%
increased by 1.64%
1 Month
66.25%
increased by 3.45%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2016 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 678 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 131.5781 | 13.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1050 | 59.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1732 | 26.80*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
678 days
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