V-Lab
Wuxi Honghui New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
37.35%
1 Week
38.20%
1 Month
41.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2016 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 682 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 129.8152 | 3.29*** |
| αARCH | 0.1045 | 14.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 4,779.83*** |
| νDF | 4.1818 | 6.75*** |
0.999
Persistence682d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 129.8152 | 3.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1045 | 14.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 4,779.83*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1818 | 6.75*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
682 days
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