Wuxi Honghui New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
31.78%
1 Week
32.72%
1 Month
36.20%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 02:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2016 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 656 trading days (~2.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.55 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 119.9633 | 3.09*** |
| αscore | 0.1070 | 14.11*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9989 | 4,305.79*** |
| νDF | 4.5535 | 5.35*** |
0.999
Persistence656d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 119.9633 | 3.09*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1070 | 14.11*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9989 | 4,305.79*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.5535 | 5.35*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
656 days
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