V-Lab
Wuxi Honghui New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
29.04%
1 Week
30.12%
1 Month
34.06%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2016 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 689 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 129.1364 | 3.29*** |
| αARCH | 0.1045 | 14.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 4,802.86*** |
| νDF | 4.2001 | 6.67*** |
0.999
Persistence689d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 129.1364 | 3.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1045 | 14.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 4,802.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2001 | 6.67*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
689 days
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