V-Lab
Wuxi Honghui New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
39.88%
increased by 4.63%
1 Week
41.00%
increased by 5.75%
1 Month
40.86%
increased by 5.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2016 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.1613 | 4.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4445 | 5.65*** |
| γleverage | 0.1005 | 1.71* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.2653 | 1.71* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1173 | 2.42** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8537 | 13.79*** |
0.656
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1613 | 4.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4445 | 5.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1005 | 1.71* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2653 | 1.71* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1173 | 2.42** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8537 | 13.79*** |
Persistence:
0.656
Half-life:
2 days
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