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V-Lab

Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

157.87%

decreased by 15.72%

1 Week

160.74%

decreased by 12.85%

1 Month

182.91%

increased by 9.32%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 22, 2003 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 799 trading days (~3.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

106
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1897
17.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8163
55.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0139
-0.57
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.71
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1409
0.69
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8591
4.04***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

799 days