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V-Lab

Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

42.23%

decreased by 1.51%

1 Week

45.74%

increased by 2.00%

1 Month

62.54%

increased by 18.80%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 02:48 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 22, 2003 to Aug 7, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 769 trading days (~3.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

106
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1948
18.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8090
52.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0095
-0.37
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.71
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1459
0.69
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8541
3.87***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

769 days