Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
157.87%
decreased by 15.72%
1 Week
160.74%
decreased by 12.85%
1 Month
182.91%
increased by 9.32%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2003 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 799 trading days (~3.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1897 | 17.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8163 | 55.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0139 | -0.57 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.71 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1409 | 0.69 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8591 | 4.04*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
799 days
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