V-Lab
Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
42.23%
decreased by 1.51%
1 Week
45.74%
increased by 2.00%
1 Month
62.54%
increased by 18.80%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 02:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2003 to Aug 7, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 769 trading days (~3.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1948 | 18.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8090 | 52.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0095 | -0.37 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.71 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1459 | 0.69 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8541 | 3.87*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
769 days
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