Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
146.11%
decreased by 15.39%
1 Week
146.10%
decreased by 15.40%
1 Month
146.05%
decreased by 15.45%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2003 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 65% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.75 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5720 | 5.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1738 | 17.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8262 | 99.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1421 | 5.14*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7493 | 16.98*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
Other Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on International Equities