V-Lab
Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
55.82%
1 Week
59.20%
1 Month
70.50%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 39 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 39 days. The volatility power δ = 1.61 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5154 | 1.44 |
| αARCH | 0.1696 | 4.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8304 | 25.43*** |
| γleverage | 0.1677 | 1.40 |
| δpower | 1.6128 | 4.31*** |
0.983
Persistence39d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5154 | 1.44 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1696 | 4.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8304 | 25.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1677 | 1.40 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6128 | 4.31*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
39 days
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