V-Lab
Trident Lifeline Limited APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
47.31%
increased by 4.05%
1 Week
49.71%
increased by 6.45%
1 Month
54.89%
increased by 11.63%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 10, 2022 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 46% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.79 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 3.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1224 | 12.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7939 | 45.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1051 | 2.15** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7885 | 11.32*** |
Persistence:
0.909
Half-life:
7 days
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