E.ON SE APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
1 Day
21.06%
1 Week
21.41%
1 Month
22.64%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 103% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.95 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0379 | 6.18*** |
| αARCH | 0.0820 | 9.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9140 | 99.16*** |
| γleverage | 0.3543 | 3.90*** |
| δpower | 0.9549 | 7.24*** |
0.979
Persistence33d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0379 | 6.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0820 | 9.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9140 | 99.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3543 | 3.90*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9549 | 7.24*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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