V-Lab
E.ON SE Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
20.02%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
20.46%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Month
21.71%
increased by 1.04%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4333 | 4.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0896 | 8.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8640 | 55.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0897 | 5.74*** |
| γ2 | -0.1420 | -6.35*** |
| γ3 | 0.0852 | 5.52*** |
| γ4 | -0.0516 | -3.54*** |
| γ5 | 0.0211 | 1.29 |
| γ6 | 0.0056 | 0.22 |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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