V-Lab
Beiersdorf AG Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
38.44%
decreased by 2.92%
1 Week
38.42%
decreased by 2.94%
1 Month
38.39%
decreased by 2.97%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1731 | 7.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1185 | 8.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7389 | 21.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.1011 | 4.05*** |
| γ2 | -0.0952 | -2.43** |
| γ3 | -0.0971 | -3.29*** |
| γ4 | 0.1626 | 5.42*** |
| γ5 | -0.1035 | -3.20*** |
| γ6 | 0.0429 | 1.48 |
| γ7 | 0.0075 | 0.26 |
| γ8 | -0.0618 | -1.61 |
| γ9 | 0.1704 | 3.00*** |
Persistence:
0.857
Half-life:
5 days
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