V-Lab
Bayer AG Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
44.66%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
46.49%
increased by 0.95%
1 Month
51.24%
increased by 5.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9566 | 6.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0799 | 8.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8630 | 50.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0573 | 2.07** |
| γ2 | -0.0470 | -1.04 |
| γ3 | -0.0696 | -1.75* |
| γ4 | 0.1131 | 3.28*** |
| γ5 | -0.0907 | -3.70*** |
| γ6 | 0.0721 | 2.63*** |
| γ7 | -0.0560 | -1.41 |
| γ8 | 0.0660 | 1.00 |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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