V-Lab
Bayer AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
40.03%
decreased by 1.20%
1 Week
41.45%
increased by 0.22%
1 Month
45.46%
increased by 4.23%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 253% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0390 | 14.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8199 | 157.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0986 | 21.56*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0077 | 2.63*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0157 | 4.65*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9825 | 244.47*** |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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