Bayer AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
42.57%
decreased by 1.42%
1 Week
43.42%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Month
46.25%
increased by 2.26%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 254% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0388 | 14.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8204 | 158.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0986 | 21.58*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0076 | 2.63*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0157 | 4.66*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9825 | 244.59*** |
Persistence:
0.909
Half-life:
7 days
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