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V-Lab

Bayer AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

36.96%

increased by 0.37%

1 Week

39.34%

increased by 2.75%

1 Month

43.96%

increased by 7.37%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bayer AG MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 245% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0399
14.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8202
158.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0978
21.36***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0079
2.73***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0151
4.68***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9830
252.30***

Persistence:

0.909

Half-life:

7 days